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IMF forecasts long and divergent recovery for Central Asia and Caucasus. «Impactful»

Impactful №6 A year into the coronavirus pandemic, and a race between virus and vaccine has entered a new phase. In Central Asia and the Caucasus, the path to recovery is expected to be long and divergent. To understand what policies can be effective to save livelihoods and promote economic rehabilitation in the region, Jihad Azour of the International Monetary Fund joined Lyazzat Shatayeva in the episode of «Impactful». 00:00 Jihad Azur, Representative of the International Monetary Fund 00:33 Situation in Central Asia 02:43 Some countries in the region are not expected to have vaccinated the majority of their population until at least mid-2022. How do you think that will affect the economic recovery and the relations between the countries? 05:31 In the region, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain the world's two most remittance reliant countries. How are they faring currently? And what is the forecast for them moving forward? 06:46 What is the forecast for oil prices in 2021? 08:46 Mr. Azour, at the same time, non-fuel commodity prices, particularly food prices rose in the second half of 2020, and are expected to remain elevated this year. The IMF’s food price index is expected to rise to 14% in 2021. How do you think that will affect the economies here in Kazakhstan? And how will that affect the poverty rate in the region? 10:28 Mr. Azour, is this to say that labor market conditions will remain weak and uneven during this year, because labor market outcomes have deteriorated throughout this pandemic, across the region, and especially for the youth in the region. 11:26 Mr. Azour, capital flows to emerging markets decreased last year. However, since the end of January till mid March, the region has experienced in capital inflow at around 490 million US dollars. What are the forecasted trends for the whole year? And how is that affecting the regional economies? 12:35 Exchange rate flexibility absorbed some of the shocks initially, however, countries with flexible exchange rate like Armenia, Kazakhstan, Georgia have seen their currencies depreciate in 2020. And there have been exchange rate interventions for some of the cases, other countries and central banks of these countries have responded with cuts of their base rates, which of the policies have proven effective and what would you recommend moving further? 14:45 With the recent flare up in the new COVID-19 cases, with new variants of the virus being found in some of the countries in the region, new restriction measures and forms of lockdowns have been introduced in the countries. What do you think the adequate amount of help and government support should be at the moment? 16:10 Central Asia and Caucasus were seen as a promising region with emerging markets before the pandemic. Now, the COVID-19 crisis has been a major blow to the growth of the economies in the region. Where do you see the region heading towards after this pandemic? 18:15 Mr. Azour, according to the latest IMF outlook, the regional output is to reach 3.7% in 2021, economic growth is forecasted for the next year and the GDP growth in the region will reach 4% by 2025. What will generate growth? Where do you think growth coming from? 19:47 Mr. Azour, we all have had a long and exhausting year, everybody feels very tired of the bad news. What do you see as some of the silver linings although it may be hard to talk about them just now, and perhaps some of the opportunities that should be seized by the countries in the region amidst this crisis? 21:32 Mr. Azour, Thank you. https://qazaqtv.com/en/programms/impa... #Impactful #JihadAzour #LyazzatShatayeva #crisis #vaccine #economic #pandemic #coronavirus #IMF #Caucasus #CentralAsia #Kazakhstan #QazaqTV Qazaq TV: бізді спутниктік арна арқылы және Youtube, әлеуметтік желілерден көріңіздер. Видео астында пікір қалдыруды ұмытпаңыздар! Qazaq TV: смотрите нас на спутниковом ТВ, в Youtube и социальных сетях. Оставляйте ваши коммментарии под этим видео. Watch us on satellite TV, YouTube and social networks. Leave your comments under this video! Qazaq TV арнасына жазылыңыз / Подписывайтесь на Qazaq TV / Subscribe to Qazaq TV https://www.youtube.com/user/KazakhTV... Біздің басты шоуларды көріңіз / Смотрите наши топовые шоу / Watch our top shows Qazaq Golden Hits    • Qazaq Golden Hits   Trails of Nomads    • Trails of Nomads   Байланыс аясынан тыс жерде    • Байланыс аясынан тыс жерде   Біздің сайт / Наш сайт / Our website - https://qazaqtv.com/ Vkontakte - https://vk.com/kazakhtv Facebook -   / qazaqtvkz   Twitter -   / qazaq_tv   Instagram -   / qazaqtv_kz   Telegram - https://t.me/Kazakh_tv