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Please join the CSIS Defense and Security Department for the launch of a joint report with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Security Studies Program Wargaming Lab titled Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan by Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham. This event will feature a presentation by the report’s authors and a panel discussion with Kari Bingen, Charles Glaser, and Tong Zhao. This study examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a war that the authors hope will never occur. What creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict? What happens if nuclear weapons are used? To answer these questions, the CSIS-MIT team modified its existing U.S.-China wargame to include nuclear weapons and ran it 15 times. The greatest pressure for nuclear use came when China teams reached a crisis: their invasion was in danger of a defeat that might threaten Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. To dissuade China from gambling for resurrection—using nuclear weapons to salvage a failing conventional campaign—U.S. diplomacy was much more important than nuclear brinksmanship. Favorable outcomes were possible, but total victory was unachievable. The United States must therefore be prepared to successfully prosecute a high-end conventional war while at the same time providing face saving off-ramps to the adversary. To do otherwise risks a nuclear holocaust, as indeed occurred in three game iterations. The research for this project was funded by a grant from the Department of Defense. The MIT Wargaming Lab supported the completion of this report and is grateful for generous family foundation support. --------------------------------------------- A nonpartisan institution, CSIS is the top national security think tank in the world. Visit www.csis.org to find more of our work as we bring bipartisan solutions to the world's greatest challenges. Want to see more videos and virtual events? Subscribe to this channel and turn on notifications: https://cs.is/2dCfTve Follow CSIS on: • Twitter: www.twitter.com/csis • Facebook: www.facebook.com/CSIS.org • Instagram: www.instagram.com/csis/