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Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and Peace Deal Explained

Why the Nagorno-Karabakh Peace Deal is SO Significant The Nagorno Karabakh Peace deal signed on the 9th of November 2020 is unprecedented. This deal, which will see the Armenian controlled de facto Republic of Artsakh hand over large swathes of its territory back to its de jure owner Azerbaijan, will fundamentally alter the geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus and the wider region. Our latest video on one of the most seismic geopolitical events of the twenty-first century so far. Latest Peace Deal Map:   / 1325933929040408577   Thank you for watching! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By GeoVane, formerly AR Global Security and Base Rate (Global Guessing, and Crowd Money). Visit our website ➡️ https://www.thirdimage.media/ 👍 Support our work here:   / geovanevideo   🐦 Twitter:   / geovanevideo   (formerly @GlobalGuessing) 📷 Instagram:   / geovanevideo   (formerly @ARGlobalSec) 🎥 TikTok:   / geovanevideo   (formerly @ARGlobalSecurity) 📋 LinkedIn:   / thirdimagemedia   (formerly @GlobalGuessing) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So why is this peace deal so significant? The deal is significant mostly because it represents a major return of Turkey to the geopolitics of the Caucasus, and a Turkish willingness to engage with the post soviet space. Additionally, Turkish troops look set to take part in peacekeeping within Azerbaijan, cementing the state’s role in the conflict for the foreseeable future. The change in tack between Turkey and Azerbaijan has been brought about by Turkey’s more outward-looking and independent foreign policy, and has had significant consequences for the region. To understand just how significant the ramifications of the potential end of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict are we must look at the larger strategic picture. In the Caucasus, the peace deal signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia represents a geostrategic victory on the part of Turkey, while also not quite being a loss on the part of Russia. Turkish involvement in partially unfreezing the Nagorno Karabakh conflict represents a fundamental geopolitical strategic shift in the region which Russia has previously considered its sole sphere of influence. The geopolitical balance within the Caucasus could now be beginning to tilt in favour of Turkey and its ally Azerbaijan, something unprecedented in recent history. If Turkey can consolidate this victory, it could look to become the hegemon and security guarantor for the Caucasus, supplanting Russia. Were this to occur, Turkey may choose to involve itself in other “frozen” conflicts in the post soviet space, such as that of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, Transnistria in Moldova and the Donbas War in Ukraine. That said, the peace deal in Nagorno Karabakh is not a complete loss for Russia, and is not an official end to hostilities to the region. While Russian troops remain in Nagorno Karabakh, the territorial dispute between the two states is kept alive and remains unresolved, which is in Russian interests. In addition, the fact that the fate of the remaining occupied portions of Nagorno Karabakh so desired by Armenia lay in the hands of Russian peacekeeping forces, gives Moscow leverage over Yerevan which will find itself even more reliant on Russia. This is incredibly significant for an Armenia that has been glancing westward since the 2018 revolution which swept the country. However, we do not know what the future holds, or what is currently going on behind closed doors, and the peace deal signed two weeks ago could lead to a permanent solution, or just as equally a resumption of hostilities and potentially an escalation on a regional scale. It must also be noted that the peace deal brokered by Russia and Turkey, has effectively sidelined the US’s role in the conflict, and made the Minsk group practically obsolete. Nonetheless, Turkish involvement in the conflict is unprecedented, and the deal borne of that involvement will change the geopolitical foundations of the region. If Armenia and Azerbaijan were to settle their dispute, be it by diplomacy, or by force, then they would be freed from the constraints placed on them by the frozen conflict. In turn, this could see the two states join organizations beneficial to their economic and security development, which could provide both with the tools needed for long term prosperity.