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Why have climate change predictions been so WRONG?

Improve your understanding of statistics and scientific graphics with Brilliant! https://www.brilliant.org/simonclark In this video I wanted to address a common talking point - why have climate change predictions been so wrong? Year after year predictions are made that have no basis in reality, so why - especially in the aftermath of the latest IPCC report - should we trust climate scientists? In particular James Hansen and his prediction in 1988 didn't turn out so well, did it? Well, as it turns out, there's a very good reason. Because they're right most of the time, and their predictions, including those of the IPCC, have been borne out by reality. Sorry lol. REFERENCES (1) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c... (2) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2270237/ (3) WG1 AR6 https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report... (4) This figure originally taken from https://skepticalscience.com/Hansen-1... (5) Oreskes, N., & Conway, E. M. (2010). Merchants of doubt: how a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming. New York: Bloomsbury Press. You can support the channel by becoming a patron at   / simonoxfphys   Check out my website! https://www.simonoxfphys.com/ --------- II --------- My twitter -   / simonoxfphys   My facebook -   / youtubesimon   My insta -   / simonoxfphys   My goodreads -   / simonoxfphys   --------- II --------- Music by Epidemic Sound: http://epidemicsound.com Some stock footage courtesy of Getty. How have predictions made by climate change experts been so wrong? This video is about why climate predictions have been divorced from reality, analysing the performance of past climate change predictions, in particular looking at James Hansen in 1988 and how his prediction ahead of the first IPCC report was so badly wrong. Huge thanks to my supporters on Patreon: Rapssack, Daniel Cook, Kevin O'Connor, Timo Kerremans, Thines Ganeshamoorthy, Jerry Moore, Sam Harvey (soon to be PhD), Ashley Wilkins, Michael Parmenter, Samuel Baumgartner, Dan Sherman, ST0RMW1NG 1, Adrian Sand, Morten Engsvang, Josh Schiager, Farsight101, Liam Margetts, K.L, poundedjam, Felix Freiberger, Robert Connell, Jaime Stark, Kolbrandr, , Sebastain Graf, Dan Nelson, Shane O'Brien, Alex, Fujia Li, Harry Eakins, Cody VanZandt, Jesper Koed, Jonathan Craske, Albrecht Striffler, hennersfl, Jon Sjöberg, Igor Francetic, Jack Troup, SexyCaveman , James Munro, Oskar Hellström, Sean Richards, Kedar , Omar Miranda, Alastair Fortune, bitreign33 , Mat Allen, Anne Smith, Rafaela Corrêa Pereira, Colin J. Brown, Princess Andromeda, Aron Kári Ágústsson, Leighton Mackenzie, BenDent, Thusto , Andy Hartley, Lachlan Woods, Tim Boxall, Dan Hanvey, Simon Donkers, Kodzo , James Bridges, Liam , Andrea De Mezzo, Wendover Productions, Kendra Johnson.