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Nassim Taleb — Meditations on Extremistan

Nassim Taleb is trader, researcher and essayist. He is the author of the Incerto, a multi-volume philosophical and practical meditation on uncertainty. SUBSCRIBE TO THE PODCAST ►    / @josephnoelwalker   LISTEN ON: WEBSITE: https://josephnoelwalker.com/nassim-t... SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2oVR... APPLE PODCASTS: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast... FOLLOW ME ON: TWITTER:   / josephnwalker   TIMESTAMPS (00:00:00) - Introduction. (00:00:55) - Heuristics for knowing when you're in Mediocristan versus Extremistan. (00:06:06) - Are certain tail exponents intrinsic? (00:08:31) - How long before 1987 did Nassim realise that option volatility shouldn't be flat across strike prices? (00:10:30) - Why hasn't Universa's tail hedging strategy now been fully priced in? (00:11:52) - Does the power law distribution of startup returns mean VCs should concentrate their bets, or spray and pray? (00:15:20) - Nassim's 30-minute take on the field of behavioural economics. (00:48:57) - Nassim's 20-minute take on superforecasting. (01:11:03) - The Precautionary Principle and AI. (01:17:28) - What are LLMs doing? (01:23:10) - War, violence, & "the empirical mean is not the real mean". (01:39:17) - Covid, & how Western governments think about tail risk. (01:43:38) - What's the most important thing people in social science get wrong about correlation? (01:52:58) - How does Nassim explain the perspicacity of the Russian school of probability? (01:55:56) - Why doesn't Hayek's knowledge argument extend to prediction markets? (01:58:26) - If mean absolute deviation is a better measure than standard deviation, why has the latter become commonplace? (02:01:09) - Nassim's next book, and what he's up to at the moment.