Скачать с ютуб US - China | Why HK's $440B Reserve Can't Defend USD to HKD в хорошем качестве

US - China | Why HK's $440B Reserve Can't Defend USD to HKD

On July 14, the U.S. announced it would revoke several provisions of the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992. This move further raised the question of whether USD to HKD peg will continue. Kyle Bass, founder of Hayman Capital, has been betting that this currency peg will break since last year. In 1983, Hong Kong experienced a currency crisis partially caused by concerns over the Sino-British negotiations over handing HK back to China, known as the “Black Saturday.” USD to HKD rose to historic high of 9.3. To save its financial system, Hong Kong established the Linked Exchange Rate System that has helped maintain the market’s confidence in the Hong Kong dollar. But Hong Kong now finds itself caught in the new U.S.-China cold war. The ties between the U.S. and Hong Kong are still close. Therefore it is unlikely that the U.S. will end all of its trade with Hong Kong and ban the Hong Kong dollar all of a sudden. But even if the U.S. doesn’t take direct actions against the Hong Kong dollar, the Linked Exchange Rate System's foundation has shifted. In 2015, an IMF working paper concluded that China had a more profound influence over Hong Kong's economy in the long term. But in the short-term, Hong Kong's business cycles tend to better match with the U.S. Therefore the Hong Kong dollar peg seemed appropriate. But many things have happened since 2015. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority claimed to have over 440 billion US dollars in its foreign currency reserve, enough to defend the Linked Exchange Rate System. Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-Po claimed the city has a currency swap arrangement with Beijing who will provide Hong Kong with a quota worth over 57 billion US dollars. But Hong Kong's foreign reserve plus the quota from Beijing is just over a quarter of its M2 money supply of about 1.95 trillion US dollars. Therefore, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority might not have enough to defend the USD to HKD peg.And how much of China’s 3.1 trillion foreign currency reserve is available for Beijing to use freely? Not a lot. As the U.S.-China cold war goes on, Hong Kong and its currency will likely decouple from the U.S. at an accelerating speed. 0:00 Introduction 0:48 The Linked Exchange Rate System 2:02 Will the U.S. Break the Peg 4:18 Building House on The Sand 6:13 How Will Beijing And Hong Kong Respond 6:52 The Risky And Expensive Defense 9:45 Going Forward ****************** We discuss world economy, history, and politics. Our main focus is U.S.-China relations. We make short documentaries and tell you the hidden stories. Welcome to Unseen Fortunes. Subscribe here: shorturl.at/hvwMS ****************** References: U.S. ending special treatment of Hong Kong amid tensions with Beijing https://fxn.ws/34ctFyG China vows retaliation after Trump slaps sanctions on it for interference in Hong Kong https://cnb.cx/3fXtU2R Trump Ends Hong Kong’s Special Status With U.S. to Punish China https://bloom.bg/2Y37vv5 Hong Kong goods for export to U.S. to be labelled made in China https://reut.rs/2DW0GED Hard-fought Sino-British negotiations over Hong Kong revealed in declassified files https://bit.ly/3h6k3cl The secret negotiations that sealed Hong Kong's future https://cnn.it/2CGodJe Linked Exchange Rate System https://bit.ly/34fvqvf Hong Kong dollar peg: what is it and why is it important? https://bit.ly/31Y6aqf Hong Kong’s Lined Exchange Rate Regime: Born in crisis, how will it get through the new crisis https://bbc.in/342IXWJ U.S. Threat on Hong Kong Dollar ‘Self-Defeating’, Say Economists https://bit.ly/347Scou United States and China enter a new cold war: Kemp https://reut.rs/2FyLrC6 U.S. Views of China Increasingly Negative https://pewrsr.ch/3g5Bx7q Should US firms be worried about Hong Kong sanctions? https://bbc.in/3artYXq Could American banks get caught in the middle of US-China rift over Hong Kong? https://bit.ly/3g0VFHN US imposes sanctions on leader Carrie Lam over Hong Kong crackdown https://bit.ly/3h0OikR Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis https://bit.ly/31Ul2pL Hong Kong’s Financial Stability: Facts Speak for Themselves https://bit.ly/3iJr8jv Chan says Beijing backs peg with dollar https://bit.ly/3aEP4SB Hong Kong Money Supply M2 https://bit.ly/3iCj8AW U.S.-China Financial War, New Cold War, Cards on Hand https://bit.ly/2DZft1p $3 Trillion Can't Buy China Out of Trouble https://bloom.bg/2Y6reK9 Hong Kong Government Debt to GDP https://bit.ly/3asTdZo Hong Kong Households Debt to GDP https://bit.ly/31W9Hp9 Hong Kong’s Dollar Peg: How It Works and Why It’s In Question https://on.wsj.com/2DZfMJB Here are all the countries considering citizenship, visa protections, or refugee status for Hong Kongers fleeing China's harsh new security law https://bit.ly/3azPycr Investors flee: Hong Kong stocks battered by Beijing’s national security proposal https://bit.ly/2DZfZfR Hong Kong residents leave, if they can https://bit.ly/3auAehq #US - China