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Prospects and Risks in Armenia-Turkey Relations

In the past few weeks, the leaders of Turkey and Armenia exchanged public messages expressing interest in normalizing relations between the two countries. The messages were preliminary, vague, and did not contain any indication of an ongoing political process or upcoming breakthrough. The prospects of Armenia-Turkey normalization have been raised periodically throughout the past 30 years, most notably in 2009 following the signing of the Zurich Protocols. Yet none of these attempts were successful. Does the current attempt stand a chance? What are the risks and benefits for each side? What are the possible roles of Russia, Azerbaijan, and other global and regional actors? Nigar Goksel and Philip Gamaghelyan discuss these and further questions.