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Forecasting the economy is not easy to get right, with factors like human preferences and unforeseen events, as well as changing business cycles, coming into play. Economists rely on data and various mathematical models, as well as skill and judgement, to help them understand trends and spot changes in economic activity, and better inform business and policy decisions. They also look at such things as demand for building permits or whether factory order books are filling up or not, which help decipher whether upcoming activity will trend up or down. The OECD has gathered a range of such leading indicators to produce the OECD Composite Leading Indicator, which has a strong track record of helping to anticipate turning points in business cycle six to nine months before they occur. For more info please visit: https://www.oecd.org/std/cli Follow us on social media: https://www.oecd.org/social-media Edited: 22/02/2021