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Michael Green: Market Efficiency Is Not The Question | Rational Reminder 302

Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/cpws-jyp-znp With a wealth of experience as a market theoretician and a prolific contributor to financial discourse, today’s guest is uniquely positioned to guide us through the complexities of index fund dynamics. Joining us to discuss the problems that passive investing may be causing in financial markets (and what people should do about it) is Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management. Tuning in, you’ll learn about the ramifications of the surging popularity of indexing and the sobering reality of mounting market inelasticity, backed by compelling evidence that underscores the challenges facing today's financial landscape. The insights in this episode extend beyond mere observation, with Mike offering policy recommendations and strategies to address the structural issues affecting our markets. While this conversation is certainly challenging, philosophical, and even alarming, it isn't purely theoretical. It’s a call to action to safeguard the integrity of our financial systems. So, be sure to join us as we navigate the nuances of indexing and passive investing at large, guided by the expertise and foresight of one of finance's most respected voices! Timestamps: 0:00:00 Intro 0:06:49 The effect the growth of indexing has on markets 0:08:46 The XIV trade that strengthened your belief in this view 0:15:29 Beyond the XIV trade, the evidence we have that indicates this is a problem 0:19:07 How we know that index funds have less elastic demand than the counterfactual security holders in the absence of index funds 0:21:37 Why flows into a cap weighted index fund are different from flows into the aggregate of active, which holds the market 0:31:54 How much of an issue this is in markets outside of the US 0:33:46 How systematic firms like Dimensional and Avantis, that tilt away from cap weights, fit into these dynamics 0:40:55 How the issue created by index fund ownership is distinct from market efficiency 0:46:55 How investors should change their strategy in response to the current market structure 0:53:54 As a portfolio manager, how Mike incorporates his views on passive into investment strategies 0:59:20 Whose responsibility it is to fix these market structure problems 1:05:39 Separate from the index fund effects, what Mike's outlook on US equity expected returns is 1:09:04 Why Bitcoin isn’t the solution to all monetary and fiscal policy problems 1:12:50 Mike Defines Success in His Life Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/t.... Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram —   / rationalreminder   Rational Reminder on X —   / rationalremind   Rational Reminder on YouTube —    / channel   Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/ben... Benjamin on X —   / benjaminwfelix   Benjamin on LinkedIn —   / benjaminwfelix   Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/ca... Cameron on X —   / cameronpassmore   Cameron on LinkedIn —   / cameronpassmore   ‘Yes, I give a fig… Thoughts on markets from Michael Green’ — https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ Michael Green on Substack — https://substack.com/@michaelwgreen Michael Green on LinkedIn —   / michael-green-9a15142   Michael Green on X —   / profplum99   Books From Today’s Episode: The Black Swan — https://www.amazon.com/dp/081297381X Adaptive Markets — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691135142 Papers From Today’s Episode: ‘How Competitive is the Stock Market? Theory, Evidence from Portfolios, and Implications for the Rise of Passive Investing’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c... ‘How Competitive is the Stock Market?’ Slides — https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QTxu... ‘Do Active Funds Do Better in What They Trade?’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c... ‘The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c... ‘The Arithmetic of Active Management’ — https://www.jstor.org/stable/4479386 ‘Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c... ‘Long Volatility, Asymmetric Alpha, Negatively Correlated Alpha, Convex Crisis Alpha’ Slides — https://www.macrovoices.com/guest-con... ‘The Greatest Story Ever Sold: The Impact of Passive Investment on Markets’ Slides — https://utahfpa.org/images/downloads/... ‘The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis’ — https://www.nber.org/papers/w28967