Скачать с ютуб NERSC User Meeting: William Collins - Studies of Extreme Weather Using ML and Climate Emulators в хорошем качестве

NERSC User Meeting: William Collins - Studies of Extreme Weather Using ML and Climate Emulators

William Collins, Associate Laboratory Director, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Berkeley Lab; Professor in Residence in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science at the University of California, Berkeley Abstract Studying low-likelihood high-impact climate events in a warming world requires massive ensembles of hindcasts and forecasts to capture their statistics. At present, it is extremely challenging to generate these ensembles using traditional weather or climate models, especially at sufficiently high spatial resolution. We describe how to bring the power of machine learning (ML) to generate climate hindcasts at four to five orders-of-magnitude lower computational cost than conventional numerical methods. We show how to evaluate ML climate emulators using the same rigorous metrics developed for operational numerical weather prediction. Furthermore, we illustrate the power of this approach by generating a huge ensemble (HENS) initialized for each day of June through August 2023, the second-hottest summer in at least the last 2000 years. We show how HENS can be used to quantify the intensity of atmospheric rivers in the Southern Hemisphere, the diffusion of tropical cyclones in the general circulation, and the severity of unprecedented heatwaves characteristic of last summer. We conclude with the prospects of extending machine-learning emulators to make skillful predictions of future climate change. Speaker Bio William Collins is an internationally recognized expert in climate modeling and climate change science. His personal research concerns the interactions among greenhouse gases and aerosols, the coupled climate system, and global environmental change. Dr. Collins is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the American Physical Society (APS), the American Geophysical Union (AGU), and the American Meteorological Society (AMS). He was awarded the AGU’s Tyndall History of Global Environmental Change Lectureship in 2019 and their Jule Charney Lectureship in 2024. He was a Lead Author on the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for which the IPCC was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, and has also served as Lead Author on the Fifth and Sixth Assessments. His role as Chief Scientist in launching the Department of Energy’s Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) program was awarded the U.S. Department of Energy Secretary’s Achievement Award on May 7, 2015. Before joining Berkeley and Berkeley Lab, Dr. Collins was a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and served as Chair of the Scientific Steering Committee for the DOE/NSF Community Climate System Model project. Dr. Collins received his undergraduate degree in physics from Princeton University and earned an M.S. and Ph.D. in astronomy and astrophysics from the University of Chicago.