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Real Estate 2021: The MYTH of the US Housing Shortage

Home prices and real estate values are surging across the U.S. in 2021. Many home buyers and investors are now asking: "Are we in another 2006-style bubble? Is a housing crash around the corner?" The financial media, as well as realtors across America, will probably disagree. They claim that the record increase in home prices is due to a chronic shortage of housing in the U.S. They argue that this shortage is what is ultimately causing prices to spike and inventories to stay low. Permitting and construction of new homes collapsed from 2.2 million in 2005 all the way down 600k by 2011 after the last housing crash. It then took another five years for developers and builders to get back to normal levels of home construction. This decline would seem to support the "Housing Shortage" argument. However, this decline in building has been matched by a decline in population growth. Due to America's aging population, there are considerably fewer births and more deaths in 2020-21 than 5, 10, or 20 years ago. The resulting lower rates of population growth mean that demand for housing is lower on a relative basis now than before the last crash. In fact, 2020 was the first year in U.S. history when permitting for new homes and apartments (1.5 million) exceeded population growth (1.2 million). Even during the mid-2000s, when the US was building more new housing than ever before, population growth always managed to exceed permitting. But no longer. Declining natural increase in population, along with declining immigration, has resulted in a huge drop off in fundamental demand for housing in the United States. This can be seen across local markets. Cities like Austin, Nashville, Salt Lake City, Boise, and Raleigh are producing lower rates of population growth relative to building in 2020 than in the mid-2000s. On the contrary - markets like Miami, Tampa, San Francisco, and Columbus - are actually experiencing real housing shortages, permitting fewer new homes and apartments now compared to the mid-2000s. Reventure Links Website: https://reventureconsulting.com/ Contact Us: https://reventureconsulting.com/conta... Instagram:   / reventure_consulting   DISCLAIMER: This video content is intended only for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes. Your use of Reventure Consulting's YouTube channel and your reliance on any information on the channel is solely at your own risk. Moreover, the use of the Internet (including, but not limited to, YouTube, E-Mail, and Instagram) for communications with Reventure Consulting, LLC does not establish a formal business relationship. 0:00 Housing Shortage MYTH 3:00 Home Prices at RECORD Highs! 4:45 2008-12 Home Building Decline 8:10 Equilibrium Level of Homes 9:48 Declining Births, Increasing Deaths 12:10 MAJOR ISSUES for Housing Market 14:58 Immigration has also Tanked 17:46 1.2 Million is Not Enough! 19:41 Population Growth / Permit Ratio 21:37 Austin = Not All It's Cracked up to Be 24:06 Salt Lake & Nashville Over Building? 26:45 Markets with an Actual Shortage 29:05 Avoid These Markets? 31:19 You Need to Use Data! #HousingBubble #Housing Shortage #RealEstateCrash